Nickel, Aluminium, Zinc, Cobalt, Lithium, Copper, Tungsten, Chromium, Titanium for sputtering Targets: non ferrous metals market overview and forecast; the impact on your sputtering target purchases.
Nickel:
Indonesia will probably overtake China as the world´s largest producer of nickel pig iron (NPI), a raw material for stainless steel production.
Effective January 2020, the largest nickel ore producers will cease exports from Southeast Asia. Will China’s NPI producers meet this raw materials shortage? China accounts for 50% of the demand for nickel, and 80% of this demand goes to the stainless steel sector.
Aluminum:
China’s production of primary aluminum is expected to grow much more quickly than its consumption in 2020. Aluminum production in China declined by 1.51% in 2019 YTD, but production will increase by 2.5% to 36.5 M T in 2020.
Consumption in China will rise at a slower pace: 0.3%, reaching 36.2 M T after a decline of almost 1.5% in 2019.
Zinc:
However, China’s imports of refined zinc increased by 10.76% in the first 9 months. Over the forecast period, the global zinc supply is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.8%, reaching 15.7 M T from 2019 to 2022. Demand is expected to reach supply level in 2022 and eventually transition to a market surplus within 3 years.
Cobalt:
Smelters in China reduced imports of raw materials after inventories shrank during the first three quarters of 2019.
Demand is expected to increase by 4% in 2019 to 137,200 T, while supply will remain constant at 163,500 Tt.
Before the release of 2020’s subsidies for new energy vehicles and new demand from the 5G mobile sector, prices will rise by 270,000-300,000 yuan/T in 2020.
Lithium
This key material for batteries will continue to increase following increased production of electrical vehicles.
Forecasts suggest that electric vehicles will account 40% of total car sales in China by 2030. They are estimated to reach 20% in 2025.
However, lithium stocks increased worldwide as they did in China during the second half of 2019. In 2017, Lithium prices led to mining investments in Australia to increase supplies of lithium ore. Global stockpiles of lithium ore reached 136,000 T of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by mid-2019, and capacity in China stood at 550,000 T LCE in 2019.
Copper:
Tungsten:
Chromium:
Over the next 2 to 3 years, the chrome ore supply is expected to plateau or increase marginally, potentially softening prices. Chrome ore prices will continue to depend on the production expectations of stainless steel.
The increase in ferrochromium processing capacity in Asia (primarily Indonesia and India) is expected to drive ferrochrome supplies for the next few years. We expect prices to remain relatively constant in 2020.
Titanium:
The price of Chinese sponge steadily increased during 2018 and Q1 2019, reaching its highest value since July 2017. Chinese titanium plate prices followed a similar trend but spiked to US$17.4/kg in October 2018, then decreased. Nevertheless, they remained at a five-year high throughout Q1 2019. Alloy plate prices are also high in the United States due to increasing demand from the aerospace sector. We expect the price to remain at current levels during first half of year 2020.